The Math of Survival: Every -60% portfolio disaster started as an ego- bruised -9% dip where the trader whispered, "I'll sell when it bounces back to my entry."
1. Loss Asymmetry Is Non-Linear
Lose -9.0% on a failed breakout, and a routine +9.89% winner restores 100% of your capital. Let that same position slide to -40%, and you need +66.7% just to get back to zero. At -60%, you must double and a half (+150%) merely to erase the scar. Audit our real post-mortem on $MBLY to see Rule 1 in action.
2. Combining Rule 1 (-9% Price Stop) with Rule 2 (55-Day Time Stop)
Even if a stock doesn't hit -9.0%, sideways chop bleeds opportunity cost. If an equity fails to clear +8.0% within 55 trading days, institutional momentum was mistimed. Rotating stagnant capital into fresh MA60 breakouts keeps portfolio velocity high.
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When entering right-side breakouts near MA20/MA60 support, a >9% drop below cost basis almost always invalidates the breakout pivot itself while keeping account-level risk under 1% on a 10% position size.
What is the +100% TP1 Free-Ride Rule (Rule 3)?
When a winner reaches +100% (2x entry), selling 50% withdraws 100% of original principal so the remaining half rides the 60-day moving average with zero principal at risk.