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TSM (TSM)

ANALYSIS REPORT #26 • 2026-02-25

Verdict

BUY

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FEAR & GREED INDEXView Detailed Analysis 📊
95EXTREME GREED (BUY)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

TSMC reported a significant double beat in Q4 2025, with actual EPS of $3.14 against an estimate of $2.82, and actual revenue of $33.73 billion against an estimate of $33.11 billion. The company provided strong Q1 2026 guidance of $34.6 billion to $35.8 billion in revenue and 63% to 65% gross margin, driven by robust AI and HPC demand. This performance, coupled with a projected 30% full-year 2026 revenue growth, underscores TSMC's strong market position and future outlook.

THE BULL CASE

THE BEAR CASE

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: STAGE ANALYSIS
{"actual_eps":"3.14","est_eps":"2.82","actual_rev":"$33.73B","est_rev":"$33.11B","guidance_summary":"Management projects Q1 2026 revenue to be between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion, with a gross margin of 63% to 65%. The company also anticipates full-year 2026 revenue growth of close to 30% and capital expenditures between $52 billion and $56 billion.","ai_interpretation":"BULLISH SIGNAL. TSMC delivered a strong beat on both EPS and revenue, exceeding expectations and its own guidance. The robust Q1 2026 guidance and ambitious full-year 2026 revenue growth projections, driven by continued high demand for advanced process technologies in AI and HPC, reinforce TSMC's dominant position and pricing power in the semiconductor industry.","verdict":"BUY","executive_summary":"TSMC reported a significant double beat in Q4 2025, with actual EPS of $3.14 against an estimate of $2.82, and actual revenue of $33.73 billion against an estimate of $33.11 billion. The company provided strong Q1 2026 guidance of $34.6 billion to $35.8 billion in revenue and 63% to 65% gross margin, driven by robust AI and HPC demand. This performance, coupled with a projected 30% full-year 2026 revenue growth, underscores TSMC's strong market position and future outlook.","investment_score":{"total":95}}

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