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ASML (ASML)
ANALYSIS REPORT #28 • 2026-02-25
Verdict
BUY
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
ASML reported a slight EPS miss in Q4 2025, with actual EPS of €7.35 against an estimated €7.58. However, revenue beat consensus, coming in at €9.72 billion compared to an estimated €9.69 billion. The company recorded an exceptional €13.2 billion in net bookings during the quarter, signaling strong future demand. Management provided robust full-year 2026 revenue guidance of €34 billion to €39 billion, driven by sustained AI-related demand and a substantial €38.8 billion backlog.
THE BULL CASE
THE BEAR CASE
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: STAGE ANALYSIS
{"actual_eps":"€7.35","est_eps":"€7.58","actual_rev":"€9.72B","est_rev":"€9.69B","guidance_summary":"ASML expects Q1 2026 net sales between €8.2 billion and €8.9 billion, and full-year 2026 total net sales between €34 billion and €39 billion, with a gross margin between 51% and 53%. This guidance signals expected revenue growth versus 2025 and is underpinned by record Q4 2025 net bookings of €13.2 billion and a year-end backlog of €38.8 billion.","ai_interpretation":"BULLISH SIGNAL. Despite a slight EPS miss, ASML's Q4 2025 revenue surpassed expectations, driven by robust demand. The record €13.2 billion in net bookings, heavily weighted towards EUV systems and long-term commitments, along with a substantial €38.8 billion backlog, reflects accelerated customer capacity expansion plans, primarily fueled by AI-driven demand. Management's bullish 2026 revenue guidance further reinforces confidence in sustained growth and ASML's critical role in advanced semiconductor manufacturing.","verdict":"BUY","executive_summary":"ASML reported a slight EPS miss in Q4 2025, with actual EPS of €7.35 against an estimated €7.58. However, revenue beat consensus, coming in at €9.72 billion compared to an estimated €9.69 billion. The company recorded an exceptional €13.2 billion in net bookings during the quarter, signaling strong future demand. Management provided robust full-year 2026 revenue guidance of €34 billion to €39 billion, driven by sustained AI-related demand and a substantial €38.8 billion backlog.","investment_score":{"total":88}}Unlock the Top 10 High-Growth AI Stocks for 2026.
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