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UPST (UPST)

ANALYSIS REPORT #63 • 2026-03-05

Verdict

BUY

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FEAR & GREED INDEXView Detailed Analysis 📊
95EXTREME GREED (BUY)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Upstart reported a strong Q4 2025, beating both EPS and revenue estimates. The company provided optimistic full-year 2026 revenue guidance, surpassing analyst consensus, and highlighted significant growth in new loan categories and improved automation, signaling continued momentum in its AI lending platform.

THE BULL CASE

THE BEAR CASE

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: STAGE ANALYSIS
{"actual_eps":"0.17","est_eps":"0.15","actual_rev":"$296.1M","est_rev":"$288.5M","guidance_summary":"Upstart expects full-year 2026 total revenue of approximately $1.4 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.27 billion. The company projects fee revenue of approximately $1.3 billion and an Adjusted EBITDA Margin of approximately 21%. Upstart also discontinued quarterly guidance, opting for annual and multi-year outlooks, targeting a 35% compound annual growth rate for total revenue and a 25% terminal Adjusted EBITDA Margin for the 2025-2028 period.","ai_interpretation":"BULLISH SIGNAL. The double beat on EPS and Revenue, combined with robust full-year 2026 revenue guidance that exceeded consensus, demonstrates strong operational execution and continued momentum in AI-powered lending. The significant growth in auto and home loan originations, along with improved automation, indicates durable growth drivers and efficient scaling of the platform.","verdict":"BUY","executive_summary":"Upstart reported a strong Q4 2025, beating both EPS and revenue estimates. The company provided optimistic full-year 2026 revenue guidance, surpassing analyst consensus, and highlighted significant growth in new loan categories and improved automation, signaling continued momentum in its AI lending platform.","investment_score":{"total":95}}

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