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UPST (UPST)

ANALYSIS REPORT #63 • 2026-03-05

Verdict

BUY

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FEAR & GREED INDEXView Detailed Analysis 📊
95EXTREME GREED (BUY)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Upstart reported a strong Q4 2025, beating both EPS and revenue estimates. The company provided optimistic full-year 2026 revenue guidance, surpassing analyst consensus, and highlighted significant growth in new loan categories and improved automation, signaling continued momentum in its AI lending platform.

📊 Valuation Check

1-YEAR TRAILING P/E BANDS

FWD P/E
10.3

THE BULL CASE

THE BEAR CASE

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: STAGE ANALYSIS
{"actual_eps":"0.17","est_eps":"0.15","actual_rev":"$296.1M","est_rev":"$288.5M","guidance_summary":"Upstart expects full-year 2026 total revenue of approximately $1.4 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.27 billion. The company projects fee revenue of approximately $1.3 billion and an Adjusted EBITDA Margin of approximately 21%. Upstart also discontinued quarterly guidance, opting for annual and multi-year outlooks, targeting a 35% compound annual growth rate for total revenue and a 25% terminal Adjusted EBITDA Margin for the 2025-2028 period.","ai_interpretation":"BULLISH SIGNAL. The double beat on EPS and Revenue, combined with robust full-year 2026 revenue guidance that exceeded consensus, demonstrates strong operational execution and continued momentum in AI-powered lending. The significant growth in auto and home loan originations, along with improved automation, indicates durable growth drivers and efficient scaling of the platform.","verdict":"BUY","executive_summary":"Upstart reported a strong Q4 2025, beating both EPS and revenue estimates. The company provided optimistic full-year 2026 revenue guidance, surpassing analyst consensus, and highlighted significant growth in new loan categories and improved automation, signaling continued momentum in its AI lending platform.","investment_score":{"total":95}}

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