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SBUX (SBUX)

ANALYSIS REPORT #72 • 2026-03-11

Verdict

NEUTRAL

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FEAR & GREED INDEXView Detailed Analysis 📊
70GREED (BUY)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Starbucks reported mixed results for Q4 Calendar Year 2025, with actual revenues of $9.92 billion exceeding analyst estimates of $9.66 billion, representing a 5.5% year-over-year increase. However, adjusted EPS came in at $0.56, missing the consensus estimate of $0.59. A key highlight was the strong rebound in same-store sales, which rose 4% year-over-year. Despite positive sales momentum, operating margin contracted to 9%. Analysts foresee revenue growth decelerating to 3.1% over the next year.

THE BULL CASE

THE BEAR CASE

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: STAGE ANALYSIS
{"actual_eps":"0.56","est_eps":"0.59","actual_rev":"9.92B","est_rev":"9.66B","guidance_summary":"Starbucks had previously indicated that a detailed financial outlook would be provided at an Investor Day in late January 2026. Reports following the Q4 CY2025 earnings release note that analysts anticipate revenue growth of 3.1% over the next 12 months, which is slower than the previous six-year average, implying potential demand headwinds for the company's menu offerings.","ai_interpretation":"MIXED SIGNAL. Starbucks delivered a revenue beat and a significant turnaround in same-store sales, which increased 4% year-over-year compared to a decline in the prior year's quarter. This suggests the 'Back to Starbucks' strategy is gaining traction in driving customer traffic and top-line growth. However, the company missed EPS estimates and experienced a contraction in operating margin to 9% from 11.9% a year ago, primarily due to ongoing investments and cost pressures. While the market reacted positively to the sales recovery, the EPS miss and the analyst outlook for decelerating revenue growth indicate a balanced risk/reward profile.","verdict":"NEUTRAL","executive_summary":"Starbucks reported mixed results for Q4 Calendar Year 2025, with actual revenues of $9.92 billion exceeding analyst estimates of $9.66 billion, representing a 5.5% year-over-year increase. However, adjusted EPS came in at $0.56, missing the consensus estimate of $0.59. A key highlight was the strong rebound in same-store sales, which rose 4% year-over-year. Despite positive sales momentum, operating margin contracted to 9%. Analysts foresee revenue growth decelerating to 3.1% over the next year.","investment_score":{"total":70}}

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